Extreme Precipitation Changes in Europe from the Last Millennium to the End of the Twenty-First Century

Abstract In this study, we aim to better understand the current and future projections of precipitation extremes in Europe context climatic variability over a long-term period from last millennium end twenty-first century. The daily gridded data five global climate models (GCMs) phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are chosen investigate natural during (850–1849), historical (1850–2005) period, two representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6 RCP8.5) scenarios (2006–99). First, seasonal annual extreme statistics GCMs evaluated using reconstruction observation. Second, spatial temporal patterns investigated Meanwhile, characteristic changes for regions further analyzed. results revealed following: underestimate overestimate mean compared with observations European Climate Assessment Dataset (ECA&D); majority except southern will most likely have large magnitude increases under both RCP scenarios; there is no systematic change all GCMs; larger shown 100- 200-yr than 5- 10-yr return scenarios. addition, short-duration increase more longer-duration extremes.